Vlad A.I.1, Sannikova T.E.2, Romanyukha A.A.2
Transmission of Acute Respiratory Infections in a City: Agent-Based Approach
Mathematical Biology & Bioinformatics. 2020;15(2):338-356.
doi: 10.17537/2020.15.338.
References
- Uchaikin V.F., Nisevich N.I., Shamsheva O.V. Infektsionnye bolezni u detei (Infectious diseases in children): textbook. 2011 (in Russ.).
- Ostrye negrippoznye respiratornye infektsii (Acute non-influenza respiratory infections). Ed. G.I. Karpukhin. Saint Petersburg, 1996 (in Russ.).
- Kermack W.O., McKendrick A.G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. 1927;115(772):700-721. doi: 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
- Liu W., Levin S.A., Iwasa Y. Influence of nonlinear incidence rates upon the behavior of SIRS epidemiological models. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 1986;23(2):187-204. doi: 10.1007/BF00276956
- Nucci M.C., Leach P.G.L. An integrable SIS model. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications. 2004;290(2):506-518. doi: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2003.10.044
- Li M.Y., Graef J.R., Wang L., Karsai J. Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size. Mathematical Biosciences. 1999;160(2):191-213. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(99)00030-9
- Hethcote H.W. The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SIAM Review. 2000;42(4):599-653. doi: 10.1137/S0036144500371907
- Billari F. C., Prskawetz A. Agent-based computational demography: Using simulation to improve our understanding of demographic behaviour. Springer Science & Business Media, 2012.
- Perez L., Dragicevic S. An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread. International Journal of Health Geographics. 2009;8(1):50. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-8-50
- El-Sayed A. M., Scarborough P., Seemann L., Galea S. Social network analysis and agent-based modeling in social epidemiology. Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations. 2012;9(1):1. doi: 10.1186/1742-5573-9-1
- Janssen M. A., Ostrom E. Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecology and Society. 2006;11(2). doi: 10.5751/ES-01861-110237
- Wang Z., Butner J. D., Kerketta R., Cristini V., Deisboeck T. S. Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling. In: Seminars in Cancer Biology. Academic Press, 2015;30:70. doi: 10.1016/j.semcancer.2014.04.001
- Bonabeau E. From classical models of morphogenesis to agent-based models of pattern formation. Artificial Life. 1997;3(3):191-211. doi: 10.1162/artl.1997.3.3.191
- Bauer A.L., Beauchemin C.A., Perelson A.S. Agent-based modeling of host-pathogen systems: The successes and challenges. Information Sciences. 2009;179(10):1379-1389. doi: 10.1016/j.ins.2008.11.012
- Frias-Martinez E., Williamson G., Frias-Martinez V. An Agent-Based Model of Epidemic Spread Using Human Mobility and Social Network Information. IEEE Conference on Social Computing. 2011. doi: 10.1109/PASSAT/SocialCom.2011.142
- Hunter E., Namee B.M., Kelleher J. An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks. PLOS One. 2018;13(12):e0208775. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208775
- Merler S., Ajelli M., Fumanelli L., Gomes M.F., Piontti A.P., Rossi L., Chao D.L., Longini I.M. Jr., Halloran M.E., Vespignani A. Spatio-temporal spread of the Ebola 2014 outbreak in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2015;15(2):204-211. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71074-6
- Kim Y., Ryu H., Lee S. Agent-Based Modeling for Super-Spreading Events: A Case Study of MERS-CoV Transmission Dynamics in the Republic of Korea. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2018;15(11). Article No. 2369. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15112369
- Hackl J., Dubernet T. Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models. Future Internet. 2019;11(4):92. doi: 10.3390/fi11040092
- Macal C., North M. Introductory tutorial: Agent-based modeling and simulation. In: Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conferenc IEEE. 2014:6-20. doi: 10.1109/WSC.2014.7019874
- Romanyukha A.A., Sannikova T.E., Drynov I.D. The origin of acute respiratory epidemics. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2011;81(1):31-34. doi: 10.1134/S1019331611010114
- Hydrometcenter of Russia. Ezhemesiachnye i ezhesutochnye srednie mnogoletnie znacheniia (normy) temperatury vozdukha dlia Moskvy (Monthly and daily average long-term values (norms) of air temperature for Moscow). https://meteoinfo.ru/clim-moscow-daily (accessed 15 March 2020).
- Karpova L.S., Volik K.M., Smorodintseva E.A., Stolyarova T.P., Popovtseva N.M., Stolyarov K.A. Different Etiologies on other ARVI in Children and Adults in 2014 to 2016. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2018;17(6):35-47 (in Russ.). doi: 10.31631/2073-3046-2018-17-35-47
- Seo Y.B., Song J.Y., Choi M.J., Kim I.S., Yang T.U., Hong K.-W., Cheong H.J., Kim W.J. Etiology and Clinical Outcomes of Acute Respiratory Virus Infection in Hospitalized Adults. Infect. Chemother. 2014;46(2):67-76. doi: 10.3947/ic.2014.46.2.67
- Lessler J., Reich N.G., Brookmeyer R., Perl T.M., Nelson K.E., Cummings D.A.T. Incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections: a systematic review. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2009;9(5):291-300. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70069-6
- Esposito S., Daleno C., Baldanti F., Scala A., Campanini G., Taroni F., Fossali E., Pelucchi C., Principi N.N. Viral shedding in children infected by pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus. Virology Journal. 2011;8(1):349. doi: 10.1186/1743-422X-8-349
- Carrat F., Vergu E., Ferguson N.M., Lemaitre M., Cauchemez S., Leach S., Valleron A.-J. Time Lines of Infection and Disease in Human Influenza: A Review of Volunteer Challenge Studies. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2008;167(7):775-785. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwm375
- Jane M., Vidal M.J., Soldevila N., Romero A., Martinez A., Torner N., Godoy P., Launes C., Rius C., Marcos M.A.A., Dominguez A. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of children hospitalized due to influenza A and B in the south of Europe, 2010-2016. Scientific Reports. 2019;9(1):12853. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-49273-z
- Zlateva K.T., de Vries J.J.C., Coenjaerts F.E.J., van Loon A.M., Verheij T., Little P., Butler C.C., Goossens H., Ieven M., Claas E.C.J. Prolonged shedding of rhinovirus and re-infection in adults with respiratory tract illness. European Respiratory Journal. 2014;44(1):169-177. doi: 10.1183/09031936.00172113
- Peltola V., Waris M., Kainulainen L., Kero J., Ruuskanen O. Virus shedding after human rhinovirus infection in children, adults and patients with hypogammaglobulinaemia. Clinical Microbiology and Infection. 2013;19(7):E322-E327. doi: 10.1111/1469-0691.12193
- Hall C.B., Walsh E.E., Long C.E., Schnabel K.C. Immunity to and frequency of reinfection with respiratory syncytial virus. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 1991;163(4):693-698. doi: 10.1093/infdis/163.4.693
- Abels S., Nadal D., Stroehle A., Bossart W. Reliable Detection of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Children for Adequate Hospital Infection Control Management. Journal of Clinical Microbiology. 2001;39(1):3135-3139. doi: 10.1128/JCM.39.9.3135-3139.2001
- DeVincenzo J.P., Wilkinson T., Vaishnaw A., Cehelsky J., Meyers R., Nochur S., Harrison L., Meeking P., Mann A., Moane E., Oxford J., Pareek R., Moore R., Walsh E., Studholme R., Dorsett P., Alvarez R., Lambkin-Williams R. Viral Load Drives Disease in Humans Experimentally Infected with Respiratory Syncytial Virus. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 2010;182(10):1305-1314. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201002-0221OC
- Haque E., Banik U., Monwar T., Anthony L., Adhikary A.K. Worldwide increased prevalence of human adenovirus type 3 (HAdV-3) respiratory infections is well correlated with heterogeneous hypervariable regions (HVRs) of hexon. PLOS One. 2018;13(3):e0194516. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194516
- La Rosa A.M., Champlin R.E., Mirza N., Gajewski J., Giralt S., Rolston K.V., Raad I., Jacobson K., Kontoyiannis D., Elting L., Whimbey E. Adenovirus Infections in Adult Recipients of Blood and Marrow Transplants. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2001;32(6):871-876. doi: 10.1086/319352
- Sieg S., Muro-Cacho C., Robertson S., Huang Y., Kaplan D. Infection and immunoregulation of T lymphocytes by parainfluenza virus type 3. PNAS. 1994;91(14):6293-6297. doi: 10.1073/pnas.91.14.6293
- Oxford Textbook of Medicine: Infection. Eds. Warrell D., Cox T.M., Firth J., Torok E. Oxford University Press, 2012.
- Monto A.S., Lim S.K. The Tecumseh Study of Respiratory Illness. VI. Frequency of and relationship between outbreaks of coronavirus infection. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 1974;129(3):271-276. doi: 10.1093/infdis/129.3.271
- Feikin D.R., Fu W., Park D.E., Shi Q., Higdon M.M., Baggett H.C., Brooks W.A., Deloria Knoll M., Hammitt L.L., Howie S.R.C., et al. Is Higher Viral Load in the Upper Respiratory Tract Associated With Severe Pneumonia? Findings From the PERCH Study. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2017;64(3):S337-S346. doi: 10.1093/cid/cix148
- Viboud C., Boelle P.Y., Cauchemez S., Lavenu A., Valleron A.J., Flahault A., Carrat F. Risk factors of influenza transmission in households. British Journal of General Practice. 2004;54(506):684-689. doi: 10.1016/j.ics.2004.01.013
- Bayram R.O., Ozdemir H., Emsen A., Dagi H.T., Artac H. Reference ranges for serum immunoglobulin (IgG, IgA, and IgM) and IgG subclass levels in healthy children. Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences. 2019;49(2):497-505. doi: 10.3906/sag-1807-282
- Jafarzadeh A., Sadeghi M., Karam G.A., Vazirinejad R. Salivary IgA and IgE levels in healthy subjects: relation to age and gender. Brazilian Oral Research. 2010;24(1):21-27. doi: 10.1590/S1806-83242010000100004
- Axtell R.L. Zipf distribution of U.S. firm sizes. Science. 2001;293(5536):1818-1820. doi: 10.1126/science.1062081
- Barabasi A.L., Albert R. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science. 1999;286(5439):509-512. doi: 10.1126/science.286.5439.509
- Ali H., Sadegh N., Behrouz M.-B., Qiang Q. ROLL: Fast In-Memory Generation of Gigantic Scale-free Networks. SIGMOD '16: Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Management of Data. 2016:1829-1842. doi: 10.1145/2882903.2882964
- Popova A.Yu., Ezhlova E.B., Melnikova A.A., Miheev V.N., Ryzhikov A.B., Ilicheva T.N., Domkina A.M., Mikheeva I.V., Saltykova T.S., Saltykova T.S. The Impact Annual Immunization against Flu on Morbidity of Flu in the Russian Federation. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2016;15(1):48-55. doi: 10.31631/2073-3046-2016-15-1-48-55
- Leung N.H.L., Xu C., Ip D.K.M., Cowling B.J. The fraction of influenza virus infections that are asymptomatic: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Epidemiology. 2015;26(6):862-872. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000340
- Galanti M., Birger R., Ud-Dean M., Filip I., Morita H., Comito D., Anthony S., Freyer G.A., Ibrahim S., Lane B., Matienzo N., Ligon C., Rabadan R., Shittu A., Tagne E., Shaman J. Rates of asymptomatic respiratory virus infection across age groups. Epidemiology and Infection. 2019;147(e176):1-6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268819000505
- Ip D.K.M., Lau L.L.H., Leung N.H.L., Fang V.J., Chan K.-H., Chu D.K.W., Leung G.M., Peiris J.S.M., Uyeki T.M., Cowling B.J. Viral Shedding and Transmission Potential of Asymptomatic and Paucisymptomatic Influenza Virus Infections in the Community. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2017;64(6):736-742. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciw841
- Moreira L.P., Watanabe A.S.A., Camargo C.N., Melchior T.B., Granato C., Bellei N. Respiratory syncytial virus evaluation among asymptomatic and symptomatic subjects in a university hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in the period of 2009-2013. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. 2018;12(3):326-330. doi: 10.1111/irv.12518
- Elveback L.R., Fox J.P., Ackerman E., Langworthy A., Boyd M., Gatewood L. An influenza simulation model for immunization studies. American Journal of Epidemiology. 1976;103(2):152-165. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112213
- Tsang T.K., Cowling B.J., Fang V.J., Chan K.-H., Ip D.K.M., Leung G.M., Peiris J.S.M., Cauchemez S. Influenza A Virus Shedding and Infectivity in Households. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2015;212(9):1420-14280. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiv225
- Valle S.Y.D., Hyman J.M., Hethcote H.W., Eubank S.G. Mixing patterns between age groups in social networks. Social Networks. 2007;29(4):539-554. doi: 10.1016/j.socnet.2007.04.005
- Eccles R. An Explanation for the Seasonality of Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Viral Infections. Acta Otolaryngol. 2002;122(2):183-191. doi: 10.1080/00016480252814207
- Eccles R. An Explanation for the Seasonality of Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Viral Infections. Acta Otolaryngol. 2002;122(2):183-191. doi: 10.1080/00016480252814207
|
|
|